21st February, 2005
The automotive industry is a very competitive environment. Last year, the industry achieved yet another record when it
sold 955,229 vehicles. The industry body, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), is predicting further growth in 2005.
They are predicting 960,000 new cars, trucks and buses will be delivered in 2005.
Such success seems quite likely. And given the nature of the industry, it is bound to produce some winners and some
losers.
Before we consider the prospects of 2005, let's look back at 2004. Using the VFACTS statistics, on vehicle sales, provided by
the FCAI we can quickly determing who sold what in 2004. But like all statistics there are stories behind the raw figures. It is
those stories which will produce results in the showrooms around the nation during 2005.
When you consider the future fortunes of car manuafcturers, you need to consider the past. History proves the fortunes of the
manufacturers rises and falls with the success of their various models. As you would expect, every model is designed to be a
winner. But the past proves that not all models carry a mark of success. Today, we're going to predict who will be amongst the
winners this year and thus become the playmakers of 2005!
We see the playmakers being Holden, Ford, Mitsubishi, Audi, Land Rover, Peugeot, MG/Rover, Mazda and Suzuki amongst others.
Let us look at the reasons why this is our viewpoint.
HOLDEN
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Holden has let their guard down and no longer competes in the booming market for 4x4s.
The Jackaroo has gone and in its place is nothing! Once Holden can source a real 4x4, with
both petrol and diesel engines with both manual and automatic transmissions and available in multiple trim levels, it will
be back in the game. But who knows when that will be! Holden chiefs must be asking themselves .... "how did we ever get
ourselves into this situation?"
Earlier this month, Holden released the new VZ series Adventra with a 6 cylinder engine. Naturally, Next Car was the first
media outlet in the world to provide the details of this new model. The new Adventra will assist Holden make up some lost
ground against the winner of the medium sized SUV sales race, which just happens to come from Ford. Why Holden ever imagined an
overpriced V8 Adventra was going to be a sales success remains a mystery. The release of reasonably priced V6 Adventras must be
viewed as a good move.
Additional sales volumes for Holden in 2005 will come from the sporty Astra 2 door models when they come to market.
A smallish AWD from Daewoo will gain strong sales support when it arrives in 2006. This Daewoo will wear a Holden badge. It's
the reason Holden shut down Daewoo in Australia. It's now clear that Holden wants Daewoo cars to be Holden cars to help
maximise its sales as it, once again, dreams about being #1 on the sales charts. We're confident Holden will gain sales
this year. But to be a real playmaker, Holden needs a real 4x4 and it needs it now!
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FORD
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The Territory is THE success story of 2004. There can be no doubt that the success will continue throughout 2005.
Fiesta and Focus have some real competition and history proves this a tough segment to make headway. Others seemed to have
given themselves a better roll of the dice, so to speak.
Ford are definately on a roll though. Falcon and Territory are the basis of their sales strength.
Although, I imagine Ford will gain sales in 2005, I don't expect the increase will be great.
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MITSUBISHI
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Mitsubishi will be a real winner in 2005. It is one company that is bound to succeed.
It dropped it's corporate guard during 2004 and sank in the sales chart. But now that the company and the market have recognised
that Mitsubishi offer some of the best products on the market, you can be sure that when the end of the year comes around,
Mitsubishi will be proven to be one of the playmakers of 2005. The Lancer sedan is selling well amongst the conventional small
sedans and so it should. The AWD Magna and Verada models are the best drivers cars built in Australia. Their on-the-road appeal
is outstanding. They make rear-wheel drive cars feel sad. They make drivers feel good, very good in fact. And there is a new model
Magna due in October 2005. |
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The new Colt is starting to make an impact on the sales charts. Expect to see many more
of these brilliant cars hit the road in 2005. They may be priced at the upper end of their market segment, but due to the
excellent characteristics of this class-leader, they provide enjoyment and fun ...... kilometre after kilometre.
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The Grandis arrived last year and has set itself up as the surprise of the year.
This people mover is so good to drive, you can call it a car! It is so pleasant, you can forget about calling it
a people-mover! If you're shopping in this market segment, the Grandis is a must drive type of car.
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AUDI
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There are many versions of the outstanding A3 available, now that the new Sportback
is arriving in Australia. Sure it may make the decision difficult, but the message is clear ..... Smallish European cars
are plentiful, but none can match the brilliance which the A3 demonstrates. You can read our stories on the A3 Sportback
here,
here,
here and
here.
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When the new A4 arrives, people will be asking an important question. How can one manufacturer
have so many new models. There's A3, A4, A6 and A8 which are new. The other models in the German manufacturers line-up aren't old
either. The S4, TT and Allroad are still up there! But the new A4 will move plenty of folks into an Audi and boost their annual sales.
Read our story, from a few months ago, on the 2005
A4 here.
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We've had the pleasure of road testing two A6 models. Our reports, which are coming soon,
will make it clear why Audi are selling more A6s! We predict the success of the A6 will continue.
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LAND ROVER
Long time Next Car readers will remember that we were
the first media outlet in Australia to show pictures of the new Discovery 3, way back in April 2004. |
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It seems to me that Land Rover thought long and hard about their new Discovery. It seems
they deliberately went out to design a new winner. And that's just what they've done. First deliveries aren't until April,
but expect to see plenty about the new Discovery 3! Stories on the new Discovery 3 are amongst our most popular stories, so
we'll be sure to bring many more stories as we head into the year.
Past stories on the Discovery 3 are here:
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MAZDA
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Mazda can't do a thing wrong! With a wide range of relatively new products, their
sales just continue to grow. The mid-year introduction of the 6 MPS will boost interest, even though it will be priced
well over $50,000. You can read our story on the 6 MPS here. The story on the 6 MPS concept car is here. |
MG & ROVER
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MG/Rover seem to be just plodding along. But their new ZR and ZS are bound to greatly improve
their sales for 2005. A new Rover 75 Tourer fitted with a diesel engine, together with their 75 diesel sedan should continue
to motivate interest as we Australians learn to accept the fact that European diesels have a great deal to offer in terms of driver
satisfaction.
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PEUGEOT
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Peugeot must be amongst the happiest of the European car makers at present. Their 407 is
a winner as sales continue to trend upward. The additional choice of diesel variants will strengthen the Peugeot offering.
Read our stories on the 407 here:
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Our road test on the Peugeot 407 SV (3 litre V6 auto) will appear in coming weeks. |
SUZUKI
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But the real winner for 2005 is bound to be Suzuki. Their new Swift is on the road and we're
amongst the first to drive this very promising package. Expect greatly expanded sales for the Suzuki nameplate with this new model.
We suspect Suzuki will have to plan for additional stocks. We also suspect other manufacturers, such as Daihatsu, Hyundai, Kia and
Toyota wish the Swift wore their badge!
The Next Car Team was the first media outlet in Australia to show the new Swift and
you can read our stories on this new arrival here:
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